Canadians Fleeing Ontario Is Accelerating, Alberta Becomes Top Destination

 

Canadians are re-evaluating their housing situation, and it’s sending many to new

provinces. Statistics Canada  (Stat Can) data shows a significant interprovincial

migration. This is the flow of Canadians looking to improve their quality of life by

moving to a new province. Since Ontario’s home prices have begun to surge, the

province has been on the losing end of this trend.

Affordable provinces are in, and expensive provinces are out for Canadian residents.

We looked at Q1 2022 interprovincial migration data and found a big shift in moving

patterns. Ontario, once considered Canada’s opportunity hub, is now seeing people

leave in droves. Alberta and Nova Scotia, formerly known for losses, are now the top

destinations for Canadians looking for a change.

Interprovincial migration is when a resident moves to a new province. Long-term

residents have insights on a province that can’t easily be quantified. Sure, maybe

unemployment is low and wages are high, but it might not add up to a better quality of

life. They have practical, on-the-ground experience with a region and how attractive it

can be. If a lot more people leave than arrive, the province might be a poor value

proposition.

Provinces with a positive flow aren’t just attracting people, but also retaining them.

Keeping locals satisfied while poaching people from other regions is no easy task.

Policymakers can learn what works and what doesn’t to continue to compete for

people.

Now let’s look at the data.

First, let’s start with the provinces doing things right. Alberta saw the largest net inflow,

gaining 5,351 people in Q1 2022. This completely reverses the negative movements

seen last year in the quarter. The next two to follow are BC with a net gain of 3,051

people (-67% compared to Q1 2021), and Nova Scotia with 2,419 (-10%) people.

All three of these provinces saw large net gains for interprovincial migrants. However,

it’s worth noticing that Alberta is the only one of the three to see an acceleration for

the trend. The other two provinces have made big gains, but they’re slowing.

The biggest loser might surprise anyone who’s not from the province — Ontario. The

province saw a net outflow of 11,566 people in Q1 2022, nearly double (+96%) last

year’s net loss. It was followed by Manitoba with an outflow of 2,229 (-7%) people, and

Saskatchewan with 1,358 (-28%) people.

Ontario is the only of the three provinces to see losses accelerate in size. The other two

provinces are seeing smaller outflows from last year. Policymakers like to emphasize

interprovincial losses don’t mean a shrinking population. You can attract more

immigrants to make up for the losses, and then some. Immigrants tend to move to the

Big Three hubs in Canada — Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.

It’s a good deal for the region, but if it fails to live up to the hype it’s not great for the

immigrant. This often results in regret, and in a best-case scenario they figure out

where locals are moving. At a certain point, word gets out and the previous hubs can

be replaced as people move directly to the new region. The former hub then must

fight an uphill battle to regain its reputation.